In my view there are two givens in the political equation for the coming year. In Canada there will be a federal election. In the United States there will be a democratic president.

First, Canada. There is simply no way Stephane Dion and the Liberals can go on condemning Stephen Harper’s conservative policies in the country at large and refusing to vote against them in Parliament. So around about the time of the next Tory budget in late February or early March, Liberal leader Dion will pull the plug on the present government and an election will be called for some time in the spring.

At this point I will make another prediction. There will be no majority government elected. Harper is too unpopular in Ontario and the big cities. Dion’s weakness in his own province of Quebec will thwart his ambition for a majority.

Now I will go out on a long limb. I think Stephane Dion will lead the Liberals back to a minority government. The reasons are clear enough. Dion is a straight shooter and he will be perceived by the voter as such. Further, he will make his own the most important issue of the century, climate change.

In contrast, Stephen Harper is a mean-minded control freak who spends too much energy cozying up to the discredited George Bush. He is also tied to the war in Afghanistan which will become more and more unpopular with Canadians as the year 2008 goes along.

Now, for the United States. It doesn’t take much courage to predict that a Democrat will be elected president next November. Even if the Republicans had a strong candidate (which they don’t) it would still be a democratic year because of George Bush’s lamentable record.

Just look at the Republicans. Giuliani sees a terrorist under every bed including that of his third wife. Huckabee rejects income taxes and evolution. John McCain is too old. Mitt Romney is too slick. (However if I had to predict a Republican winner less than two days before the Iowa caucuses, I would have to go with Romney.)

The Democrats are in a tight race, probably too tight to call. Today’s Des Moines Register poll shows Obama on top followed by Hillary and John Edwards. However these polls are notoriously unreliable because they are based on the total population of Iowa (three million) while fewer than 10 per cent of those will actually show up at the caucuses.

If John Edwards does not win Iowa he is probably finished. (Even if he does win it is difficult to see how he has the resources to mount a national campaign before super Tuesday on February 5.) Clinton and Obama could both lose in Iowa and live to fight another day.

During most of the year just ending I considered myself a supporter of Hillary Clinton. Now I am taking a serious look at Obama.

So there you are:

In Canada a minority government led by Stephane Dion and the Liberals.

In the United States a Democratic president – either Hillary or Obama.

Do you have a prediction for 2008 in the area of politics, religion, sports, culture or anything else? Do share it with us.



  1. 1
    Paul Costopoulos Says:

    I can go along with your predictions but you have forgotten one: elctions in Québec and a new minority government, PLQ or PQ, hard to tell, with the ADQ in third place having the swing vote.
    At the federal level the NDP could have a few more M.Ps,maybe even in Québec, but that would play against Dion. Could we have a hung parliament leadind to an PLC/NDP coalition?

  2. 2
    Alex Thomas Says:

    Predictions are predictacle. They’re guaranteed to be 50% accurate. Either you’re right — or you’re wrong. Might as well toss a coin. Or get a job as a weatherman. Where else can you be wrong 90% of the time, and still keep your job? Oh, yeah, I forgot — The Ministry of Finance.
    My name is Alex Thomas. Of course, that’s just my opinion, I could be…

  3. 3
    Barbara Says:

    It is about time you noticed Obama.

  4. 4
    Alex Thomas Says:

    The Democrats are offering a choice: a white woman, or a black man. The Republicans, bless their lack of imagination, could have run Condi Rice. Instead, they settled for good ol’ boys. I guess 2006 learn’d ’em nuthin’.
    My name is Alex Thomas. No matter who wins in November, I think we lose.

  5. 5

    No one is stopping Rice from running. She is not doing so for some reason. Besides, having a black or woman (or both) run for the sake of it is not a sign of progress. In any event, I hope Hilary does not get in – anyone but her. Ditto for the Liberals. We may not agree with Harper but he’s brought Canada some measure of international respectability back. Under the Liberals, this country became a loud mouth bunch of rhetorical hacks.

    Regardless, until Canada reforms how they elect their leaders at political conventions, expect democracy to be limited here.

    Now on to the more transparent U.S. system. It’s tough to get excited for ANY candidate except for Ron Paul and Barak Obama. Bill Richardson has said some interesting things.

    Americans will not vote based on Bush’s lamentable record because he won’t be running – don’t forget 30% of Americans still think he’s a-okay. Quick word on Bush. His record, believe it or not, on the foreign policy and domestic front is plus ou moins in-line with American history. Where he has deviated is his foolish willingness to give more power to the religious right. With a split Congress watch for him to be a lame duck domestically but still wield sway on foreign policy.

    In any event, non-partisan Americans are very concerned about the general state of the Union. I only wish Canadians would lend themselves to introspective self-criticism more often.

  6. 6
    Dezertlady Says:

    Rice is inept in my opinion. She just runs around looking for photo ops and doesn’t get anything serious done.
    I think in November ’08, there will be a Obama/Edwards ticket. But who knows?
    On the Republican side, I would like to see Paul win or be on a VP ticket with someone. I don’t think the Republicans can support Huckabee. They wanted Giuliani, but his personal life and mob connections brought him down.
    As for the rest, McCain is too much like Bush, and Thompson isn’t serious about this whole thing. I believe that Romney won’t get elected because of his religion. So who does that leave? You guessed it! Ron Paul !

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